Development Review

Vol 31, Issue 1, 2022

Export-led Growth (ELG) Hypothesis in BCIM Countries: A Panel Econometric Analysis

Author(s) : Dr. Md. Moniruzzaman

Abstract : 

The study explores the stability and causality of export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar commonly known as BCIM countries. ADF and KPSS unit root tests are employed to check the stationarity of time series data and ARDL approach for long-run co-integration among the variables. MWALD Granger causality test is also used to determine the direction of causality among the variables. It is found that both export-led growth (ELG) and growth-led export (GLE) hypotheses are stable in Bangladesh and India; only ELG theorem is relevant to China; and GLE hypothesis is valid in case of Myanmar. In this study, unidirectional and bidirectional causal associations between the variables determine the relevance to ELG and GLE hypotheses in the context of BCIM countries. It is mentionable that any joint step of BCIM countries is critical to promote exports by penetrating new destinations with diversification of exports of goods and services. The study findings also suggest that the potential for utilizing unused resources of these countries to promote exports in order to reach spectacular growth path.

Keywords : Export-led growth, growth-led exports, economic growth, panel econometric analysis, BCIM countries.

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